> I’d say Terrance has recently left the denial phase, …
There’s a byline at the top of the article that lists the authors of this blog post, neither of which are Terry Tao.
> [This is a guest post by Silvia De Toffoli and Eamon Duede. This blog post was initially written in a different file format and converted using AI. — T.]
> Anthropic specifically is basically saying that they believe it's even more dangerous if someone else gets to AGI before they do, so they have to either stop everyone or not stop themselves.
That’s how people rationalize being a fentanyl dealer and selling a drug that can kill people, “Someone else will just sell them the drugs, might as well be me.”
If I really thought what my company was working on had a greater than 1% chance of ending human civilization I would feel obligated to destroy what my company was working on.
Given they keep grinding away towards our alleged collective doom, I suspect it’s being overstated. Nobody knows what P(doom) actually is but I suspect it’s orders of magnitude closer to epsilon than 1.
Recall Google’s Blake Lemoine who thought an old version of Gemini was sentient.
The people who think as you think indeed have left or never joined.
The people still there necessarily think they can make a difference.
I never applied to any of them because I didn't think I could make a difference.
I currently have one idea that may help reduce risk; if I can turn that idea into research, I'll publish it for free for everyone.
I don't expect it to be an important idea.
> Recall Google’s Blake Lemoine who thought an old version of Gemini was sentient.
Indeed. Current LLMs are sychopants boosting the users' own beliefs, I also think this causes researchers to have stronger beliefs than they had before.
My own estimation happens to also be around this risk (0.1) over my lifetime, without using an LLM as a conversation partner in reaching this number.
It is necessarily high-variance: we can't look at alternate realities. I base it on my expectation of how rapidly capabilities will increase the harm done when mistakes happen, vs. the chance that some instance of harm causes governments to change the law.
“Nub City” is a nickname for Vernon, Florida where the residents ended up filing far more dismemberment insurance claims for amputated limbs than was statistically likely, the town of 500-800 people was the source of 2/3rds of the claims against the policies at one point. Insurance companies stopped writing dismemberment insurance policies in the area.
> Vernon gained infamy in the late 1950s and early 1960s due to the improbably high percentage of residents who made insurance claims for lost limbs, leading to an investigation of whether residents of the city were intentionally dismembering themselves for the insurance money. These insurance claims from Vernon, with a population of 500 to 800, accounted for as many as 2/3 of claims nationally, but there was no way of proving that any particular amputation was deliberate.[9] This led to Vernon being referred to as "nub city" during this period. In 1980, Errol Morris attempted to make a documentary about this phenomenon, but after being threatened by city residents and physically attacked by one, he changed the focus of the film, resulting in the 1981 documentary film Vernon, Florida.
I have $500,000 in coverage for bodily injury liability and $100,000 for property damage and I feel like that’s not enough but those are the highest options to select for coverage.
I’d prefer to be covered at double those amounts in case of some crazy and unlikely scenario like getting in an accident with a G Wagon where the other driver dies. There’s also $40M aggregate of personal injury protection.
And to add, you're already close to maxing out the underlying limits by default as required by auto lenders. If not financing, you should still...get similar levels to add umbrella.
For the parent, an extra 1M umbrella is an extra $2-300/y and covers beyond auto!
A Lexus is just a Toyota with nicer materials on the inside. They use Toyota parts that cost Toyota prices, they aren’t out to gouge you on parts like European manufacturers. Sometimes Lexus vehicles are cheaper than a similar Toyota, a Lexus GX460 costs less than a similar vintage Toyota 4Runner or Toyota Landcruiser.
The “common” places I’ve seen ammonia refrigeration in use are hockey rinks and cold storage warehouses. I assume it’s used in industrial installations as well for heat rejection.
There’s a byline at the top of the article that lists the authors of this blog post, neither of which are Terry Tao.
> [This is a guest post by Silvia De Toffoli and Eamon Duede. This blog post was initially written in a different file format and converted using AI. — T.]
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