I would expect that OpenAI gets as much money as they ask for for the next 10 years.
There’s virtually infinite capital: if needed, more can be reallocated from the federal government (funded with debt), from public companies (funded with people’s retirement funds), from people’s pockets via wealth redistribution upwards, from offshore investment.
They will be allowed to strangle any part of the supply chain they want.
China already has a well developed DRAM industry, as DRAM is somewhat easier than logic, and can tolerate a much higher defect rate. The industry will figure this out.
Another point is I often see the money argument - like country X has more money, so they can afford to do more and better R&D, make more stuff.
This stuff comes out of factories, that need to be built, the machinery procured, engineers trained and hired.
I think the article has a giant blind spot as far as China is concerned , considering they have already a mature enough memory ecosystem via YMTC that Apple was considering sourcing from them. As well as continued expansion in the DRAM and HBM Fabs [1].
It feels like the memory cartel once again trying to incentivise their various govt to cough up some more tax breaks/funding to cushion the AI buildout bet that they made and the bubble seeming about to pop.
In any case if they leave the consumer market underserved it should be no surprise if before that 2030 prediction we are all on cheaper YMTC memory modules.
I think you're massively overestimating how much money is really accessible here. The parent comment's right that all of the easily available VC & private equity investment is basically used up. OpenAI was struggling to sell $600M of private equity, the big multi-billion dollar investment packages had lots of conditions and non-cash in it.
> more can be reallocated from the federal government (funded with debt)
While this is the most reliable funding, it's still not very accessible. OpenAI is a money pit, and their demands are growing quickly. The US government has started a bunch of very expensive spending. If OpenAI were to require yearly bundles of it's recent "$120B" deal, that's 6% of the US' discretionary budget. 12.5% of the non-military discretionary budget. (And the military is going to ask for a lot more money this year) Even the idea of just issuing more debt is dubious because they're going to want to do that to pay for the wars that are rapidly spiralling out of control.
None of this is saying that the US government can't or wouldn't pay for it, but it's non trivial and it's unclear how much Altman can threaten the US government "give me a trillion dollars or the economy explodes" without consequences.
Further deficit-spending isn't without it's risks for the US government either. Interests rates are already creeping up, and a careless explosion of deficit may well trigger a debt crisis.
> from public companies (funded with people’s retirement funds)
This would be at great cost. OpenAI would need to open up about it's financial performance to go public itself. With it's CFO being put on what is effectively Administrative Leave for pushing against going public, we can assume the financials are so catastrophic an IPO might bomb and take the company down with it. Nobody's going to be investing privately in a company that has no public takers.
Getting money through other companies is also running into limits. Big Tech has deep pockets but they've already started slowing down, switching to debt to finance AI investment, and similarly are increasingly pressured by their own shareholders to show results.
> from people’s pockets via wealth redistribution upwards
The practical mechanism of this is "AI companies raise their prices". That might also just crash the bubble if demand evaporates. For all the hype, the productivity benefit hasn't really shown up in economy-wide aggregates. The moment AI becomes "expensive", all the casual users will drop it. And the non-casual users are likely to follow. The idea of "AI tokens" as a job perk is cute, but exceedingly few are going to accept lower salary in order to use AI at their job.
There's simply not much money to take out of people's pockets these days, with how high cost of living has gotten.
> from offshore investment.
This is a pretty good source of money. The wealthy Arabian oil states have very deep slush funds, extensively investing in AI to get ties to US businesses and in the hope of diversifying their resource economies.
The "no food in other countries" is because of failed/corrupt governments, not because people use AI to generate cat pictures in the West. The economy is not a "fixed pie" that needs to be allocated among people of the world.
Just look at Cuba, which could be a very rich country and one of the prime tourist destinations of the world.
Honestly with LLMs you don't need an Obsidian anymore. You can just use neovim or emacs. Every feature you need, like search, or linking can be done via plugins or shell commands.
Because before LLMs you couldn't use neovim? Emacs's search feature was vide coded in 2024? How is the first half of your comment even related to the second half.
I use Obsidian to view a series of markdown files I am generating / working on with a LLM - a rendered interface if you will with pointing and clicking
I was using vimwiki with a ton of plugins for many years before Obsidian came along. It was very nice to be able to open all of my notes in a UI made for editing them.
Human appetite for more knows no bounds. Imagine what we’d have to do for everyone to have a zettaflop. We won’t have the resources for it. So guys like this one are in competition with normal people who just need a little bit of compute, so that he can feel powerful with a million Claudes. Sad.
Soon every website will have an LLM entirely in JS that will create the React code for the rest of the website, build it, deploy it, then create the article on the fly from a prompt, and present it.
Oof. You may have just named the next frontier in our becoming unmoored from base reality. That's gonna be a gold rush. And I hate that this just gave me a brutally demented idea for a dating platform. I have a conscience, damnit.
Poor mother Earth, this race is unsustainable. In order to satiate guys like geohot we are pillaging the natural resources, destroying ecosystems, fucking up the climate.
I kind of agree with you there is only enough area for solar for 150 million people (even if we assume all land is solarable) but there is no reasons we couldn't eventually have everyone with a milion Claudes with fusion.
Edit: There is a problem with that - 10MW * 8 billion is something like half the solar power from the sun which implies wasted heat will heat earth considerably.
What is tiresome is how sincerely these people insist on being able to make everyone act according to their will, while simultaneously displaying weakness, incompetence, and extreme pettiness. Trying to threaten people into respecting them. The lack of class is just so unsightly.
There was a time when this kind of thing would fly. When the one in charge is a giant orange child-man who can't keep a consistent thought across a single sentence, it makes it clear that the whole thing is narcissistic theatre. It doesn't surprise me that his underlings would try to emulate it, and do a bad job in the process.
I don't like being a part of the reactionary 'orange man bad' crew, but this is really shockingly bizarre. It's not the kind of behaviour you expect from a real leader of a real superpower. And it does make you think - perhaps there's something to be said about the USA not being nearly the power that it once was, and maybe this is what it looks like after you crest the apex of power.
It’s more like the abusive parents telling the child that they’ll sell him to the scary man at the bus stop every time they want to coerce the child into doing what they want.
Eventually the child develops disrespect for authority.
How could it be that a political system which remained largely structurally unchanged since the freaking 18th century isn't equipped to deal with everything that has been going on in the world since then?
There’s virtually infinite capital: if needed, more can be reallocated from the federal government (funded with debt), from public companies (funded with people’s retirement funds), from people’s pockets via wealth redistribution upwards, from offshore investment.
They will be allowed to strangle any part of the supply chain they want.
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