Anthropic’s story over the past year has been nothing but explosive growth that they can’t keep up with, but now they’re suddenly doomed? Seems pretty far fetched to me.
No idea why you’d say they have critically underinvested in product when Claude Code dominates and they’ve also released popular tools like Cowork and integrations for Microsoft products at an incredibly rapid pace.
Cost is becoming more of a factor, and no doubt they’ll work on that. There’s no reason to think they won’t be able to release cheaper models if they optimize for that rather than improving performance.
I never said they were doomed. Where did you get that idea? I said they aren't ready for this world. That means they screwed up and need to get ready. They let the Mythos hype get to their heads while the world changed beneath them.
Yup, they’ve been screwing up all the way to the bank.
I agree that lower cost models will become a bigger priority in the near future, but I have to hard disagree that Anthropic’s strategy can be characterized as a screw up.
Sure, if they never shift with the market and their customers start moving to cheaper competitors, then it’d be a screw up.
But as of right now, producing the best coding model possible has led to insatiable demand. To the point where they’ve even eclipsed OpenAI, forcing them to change strategy to compete.
Algorithms are also improving. I believe it's very unlikely for these two improvements together to not result in one to two orders of magnitude cheaper cost per "intelligence". Of course, that might just make use cases that are too expensive today viable and thereby increase usage further.
Yeah, it’s called supply and demand. Demand for memory went way up suddenly. Now supply is going up rapidly as companies try to cash in on that demand.
Supply will eventually catch up with demand. Then the prices will come back down.
Costs will plummet as better hardware becomes available and priced reasonable so that people can more easily run their own open models locally. But that won't help Antropic/OpenAI make more money, quite the opposite.
A lot of the new hardware requires retrofitting existing datacenters for appropriate cooling, or is waiting to be installed because the new datacenters haven't been built yet. By the time they're installed it's likely a lot of Blackwell GPUs are going to be very out of date. Newer hardware is turning into huge capex bills along with the corresponding depreciation costs. Basically, it's not the same as plugging a new GPU into your desktop, the upfront investment is extremely expensive and all the numbers I'm seeing suggest that the newer GPUs are costing more to run, not less.
With sponsored links and aggressive SEO, “Google it” has been falling apart as a source of facts for a long time.
There is an incredible gap in the search literacy between different users of Google. Some will accept what they find in the top links, no matter how dubious the source.
I don’t think abysmal is the right word. The hardware was widely praised except for being dorky looking and a few other complaints.
The price and lack of content and developer interest have been the main problems.
And ultimately, people just don’t seem that interested in this product category. Meta ran into the same issue, though at least they targeted gaming where there is a decent niche.
VR/AR tech seems cool and futuristic, but hasn’t quite found its killer app yet.
Meta did sell over 20 million headsets. The Quest is definitely lower-margin hardware than Vision Pro, but in terms of install base that's an order of magnitude larger audience.
Apple really screwed themselves by only supporting WebXR for cross-platform VR experiences. Soon Valve will ship the Steam Frame, which will likely cost a fraction of the Vision Pro and support bog-standard PC games like H3VR, flight simulators and flatscreen PC titles. Meanwhile, AVP owners will have paid $3,500 for a more powerful chip/headset with a fraction of the content library and featureset that Valve and Meta offer. Vision Pro's lack of audience is entirely a self-imposed failure, it seems.
Yeah, the gaming market is a decent sized market. It’s not huge, though, and is not growing very fast.
It was a strategic mistake for Apple to not focus on gaming. But realistically, the AVP was always going to be way too expensive for basically anything.
Maybe if you could pick one up for like $800 and there was a lot of great 3D immersive content, it could take off. But even then, I feel like it’s just not a product category the average person is that excited about.
I guess it depends on how you define ambition. If you are talking about in an absolute sense, yeah of course, the Dart project had to build a whole language, VM, and ecosystem. That's way more ambitious than Deno.
Though if you look relative to the team size and resources going into it, a project like Deno can still be considered ambitious. Creating an alternative ecosystem to nodejs is a large undertaking.
A fundamental problem with this is that "8" is two different releases (8.0 and 8.1), "10" is about 9 different releases, and "11" is three different releases so far (21H2, 22H2, and 24H2). It doesn't make much sense to lump all of them together because they share the same marketing name; technically there's no difference between going from 8.0 to 8.1 or from 22H2 to 24H2 and going from Vista to 7 or 10 20H1 to 11 21H2
10 was bad 11 is a little better but no enough.
With win10 they started with more annoying ads and the start menu with apps and the click bait news in the start menu
It was, eventually. In the beginning 10 was literally just Windows 8.1 (it even ran the same NT6 kernel) but with the classic UI slapped back on. They called it 10 to get away from the Windows 8 branding that everyone hated.
I recall it being pretty mediocre at release, just a reskinned 8.1. 10 started to come into its own much later after NT10
Aside from the start menu no, not really. Windows 8 is the most performant operating system. No laggy animations (thanks to DirectUI), fast boot time, especially fast on older systems. Windows 10 started the whole lagfest.
exactly! I don't understand why people hated it so much.
It was snappy, clean OS. I've always thought it was better than Win7.
Of course, absent of start menu was terrible choice. And I meant 8.1, not 8.
"aside from the start menu" is one hell of a caveat. When you screw up one of the main UI elements as badly as they did, it really drags the whole experience down.
Well most people just press the Windows key and type to open a program which works exactly the same on Win8. And personally I loved the start screen. And how often do you really need the start menu?
That's the most brain dead take I've seen in a while. Yes, forget about start menu and lets just search everything or use giant pictorials designed for 'blind' people.
Windows 8 was ultra stable. I've seen uptime well over multiple years on it. The original UX was beyond awful and 8.1 made it ok but the core of the OS was solid.
I mean, apart from killing the start button and all the touch first applications, windows 8 felt really satisfying to me by eliminating transparency effects and having simpler, clearer window decorations. I hate the transparency effects in windows 7, and performance was improved in Win 8.
Maybe Windows 12 will be the promised "last Windows" which 10 was supposed to be.
I'd love to know the exec who ordered Windows 11. It stinks of "I need a product on my resume that I launched because being Windows 10 "maintainer" sounds so pathetic on a resume."
No idea why you’d say they have critically underinvested in product when Claude Code dominates and they’ve also released popular tools like Cowork and integrations for Microsoft products at an incredibly rapid pace.
Cost is becoming more of a factor, and no doubt they’ll work on that. There’s no reason to think they won’t be able to release cheaper models if they optimize for that rather than improving performance.
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